DEVELOPING DEBT CRISES REFLECT A FRAGILE FINANCIAL SYSTEM

 

 

The market’s risk sentiment is improving, partially due to the stabilization of the Israel-Hamas conflict from the perspective of financial markets. This has impacted gold and silver, which are usually seen as safe-haven assets, leading to a decrease in their values over the past few weeks.

On Monday, gold prices experienced a slight increase, influenced by short-term futures traders engaging in short covering and investors seeking deals after recent price declines. Both gold and silver prices reached their lowest points in four weeks, with December gold futures rising by $7.150 to $1,949.39 and December silver futures increasing by $0.0420 to $22.36. The market is currently balanced, with no clear advantage for either bulls or bears in the near term, although the trend for gold prices is slightly downward. Bulls are aiming to break through the resistance level at $2,000.00, while bears are trying to push prices below the support level of $1,900.00. The immediate resistance and support levels are identified at $1,950.00, $1,965.00, and $1,935.60, $1,925.00 respectively. Silver bulls are aiming to exceed the October high of $23.88, while bears are attempting to lower prices below the October low of $20.85. The resistance and support levels are set at $22.50, $22.80, and $21.925, $21.50, respectively.

Amidst these market movements, the U.S. Treasury’s 30-year auction witnessed tepid demand, with foreign buyers reducing their interest in U.S. debt. The Treasury faces the challenge of refinancing $5 trillion in maturing debt and covering a projected $2 trillion fiscal budget deficit in 2024. Additionally, the interest expense on the $34 trillion U.S. debt is escalating exponentially, currently at $1 trillion annually. Disturbances in the U.S. Treasury market could have significant global financial repercussions.

The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance on rates due to persistently high consumer prices. The dilemma they face is that loosening conditions could reignite inflation, while continued tightness could hamper economic activity, thereby exacerbating the deficit and debt issuance. This places Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve in a challenging position as the Treasury prepares for a substantial increase in debt issuance.

Compounding these issues, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit outlook to negative, hinting at a potential Sovereign ratings downgrade amidst the Federal budget crisis in Washington. U.S. household debt has reached record highs, with consumer rates soaring above 20%. The U.S. banking system is also under pressure due to commercial real estate debt and underwater Treasury and mortgage debt portfolios. The current stability of the banking system is largely due to the government allowing banks to value their portfolios at par rather than market value, which, if not in place, would have already triggered a banking crisis.

As these debt crises unfold, physical gold and silver are increasingly viewed as means of wealth preservation outside an increasingly fragile financial system.

 

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Gold and Silver Soar Amidst Rising Middle East Tensions: A Glimpse into Safe-Haven Asset Dynamics

 

Gold made a striking ascent this morning by $35, landing at $1990, whereas silver’s shimmer grew by $0.75, touching $23.58.

On the technical front, gold enthusiasts eye the coveted $2,000.00 milestone for December futures, while the cautious ones hedge their bets below $1,875.00. Silver sees a good bit of resistance at the $23.89 price point, while its enthusiasts are looking to breach the $24.00 in order to see it break out higher.

In the wake of intensifying Middle East conflicts, particularly the heart-wrenching incident earlier this week at a Gaza hospital with over 500 casualties, gold and silver are shining brighter than ever.  Over night, we saw reports indicating that ammunition initially sent to Ukraine was being diverted to Israel- another indication that the events are still ramping up. Since the beginning of the month, gold has seen a rise to 3 month highs, with silver tracking higher as well. These tumultuous geopolitical events are ushering traders and investors toward the comforting embrace of safe-haven assets.

For those who are new to precious metals, war and geopolitical tensions often lead to increased uncertainty and volatility in global markets. In such scenarios, investors seek stability and safety, which is why they often turn to “safe-haven” assets. Gold and silver are considered such assets for several reasons:

  1. Historical Value: Gold and silver have been valued as wealth and a medium of exchange for thousands of years. They have retained their value across civilizations, wars, and economic crises.
  2. Tangible Assets: Unlike stocks or bonds, gold and silver are tangible assets. They don’t rely on a third party’s ability or promise to pay, making them more reliable during uncertain times.
  3. Low Correlation with Other Assets: Gold, in particular, often moves independently of stock markets and can even perform well when stocks are down. This makes it an attractive option for diversifying portfolios during times of conflict.
  4. Inflation Hedge: Wars and conflicts can disrupt trade and economic activity, potentially leading to inflation or even hyperinflation in extreme cases. Gold and silver are often seen as hedges against inflation because, historically, their value has often risen when the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines.
  5. Weakened Confidence in Fiat Currencies: Wars can undermine confidence in governments and their currencies. If investors believe that a currency will weaken due to war or geopolitical tensions, they might turn to gold and silver as more stable stores of value.
  6. Increased Physical Demand: In times of geopolitical crisis, there can be an increased demand for physical gold and silver. This could be due to individuals seeking to protect their wealth or central banks aiming to bolster national reserves.

There is no major economic data being released today.

 

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Equity Market Sell-Off, Higher Interest Rates & US Dollar Weakness Leads Precious Metals into Advantageous Entry Level

 

Thirty-year US Treasury rates are up 80 basis points and ten-year rates are up 50 basis points during the 3rd quarter ending today. This is the largest and fastest rate of increases in decades. The Federal Reserve continues QT (Treasury bond selling) while foreigners continue their shift from US Treasury buyers to sellers. These are the consequences of the Fed keeping interest rates too low for too long; the forty-year bond bull market cycle is over.

Six months since the last bank failures, commercial real estate continues its re-pricing lower while banks grow their underwater assets of loans and bonds. The global paper derivatives market teeters as a $2 quadrillion time-bomb. Debt and currency crises may be looming as inflation continues globally with gasoline $7 in California.

Looking ahead, $2 trillion annual US Federal deficits with huge upcoming re-financings and supply of Treasuries will cast a shadow over paper assets (equity and debt).

Precious metal demand worldwide remains evident with Shanghai and Moscow premiums drawing vaulted physical supply from “West” to “East.” In 2023, new Basel III Gold NSFR regulations have prompted large Central Bank gold buying while the global process of “de-dollarization” moves ever forward. Lest not forget that global silver supply for industrial (solar and electric vehicles) and real-asset investment has been and will continue at substantial and increasing annual deficits going forward.

Buy the dip, get your physical precious metals at this advantageous entry level now.

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Best Practices for Investing in Precious Metals

 

 

As domestic traders and analysts await important U.S. data, such as the employment #’s for July and non-farm payroll numbers on Friday, the gold market dropped nearly 1 % today and continued in the range between $1,900 and $2,000.  Some could argue that we potentially reached a great time to make those long-awaited purchases before a breakout, or liquidation before further price drop action.  It is important to approach the process with a well-informed and educated mindset. There are several best practices to keep in mind when investing in precious metals that can help protect your investment and ensure your satisfaction with the final product.

 

Research

First and foremost, it is essential to conduct thorough research before making any purchases. This includes understanding the different types of precious metals available, their current prices, historical price action, and the overall market conditions. Additionally, it is important to consider the purity, weight, and type of metal you are interested in, whether it be gold, silver, platinum, or palladium.

 

Choose Reputable Dealers

In order to ensure a trustworthy transaction, it is crucial to only buy from reputable and established dealers with a proven track record of providing high-quality products and reliable service. Look for dealers who are accredited by industry associations such as the Better Business Bureau, the Certified Coin Exchange (CCE) and the American Numismatic Association (ANA).  GoldClub Direct strives to maintain 5-star service and customer satisfaction.

 

Verify Authenticity

The authenticity of the precious metal you are purchasing should always be verified through checking for hallmarks, purity markings, or certificates of authenticity. While not as common, counterfeit products are unfortunately still found in the precious metals market, so it is important to remain vigilant.  GoldClub Direct has never bought or sold any counterfeit products.  All our products come from verified Government and private Mints as well as verified market leaders and market makers.

 

Consider Storage

Another important consideration is how you plan to store your precious metals. If you prefer a tangible approach, consider investing in a secure safe or storage facility. Alternatively, entrusting your metals to a reputable vault or depository adds an extra layer of protection. GoldClub Direct works with esteemed vaults across the country, ensuring your treasures rest in capable hands. While many Precious Metals IRAs are required to be held in a depository or vault, individuals wishing to secure their metals may also opt to store it with a storage facility.  Please call one of our representatives at 800-700-4715 for help setting up a storage account.

 

Understand Fees & Taxes

It is also crucial to understand any fees associated with buying, selling, or storing precious metals. Additionally, be aware of any taxes that may apply to your purchase, especially if you plan to sell the metals in the future.

 

Start Small

Finally, if you are new to investing in precious metals, it is advisable to start small and gradually increase your holdings as you become more familiar with the market and your investment goals. Just as alchemists blend various elements to create powerful elixirs, diversifying your precious metals portfolio is key to minimizing risks. Spread your investments across different metals and consider the purity and weight of each. This strategic mix will fortify your holdings, guarding them against the uncertainties of the market. The monthly jobs reports can create waves in the market, causing fluctuations in precious metal prices. Before diving in, have a clear exit strategy in mind. Whether it’s a long-term investment or a short-term move, understanding your goals will keep you anchored amidst the market’s tides.  Precious metals tend to appreciate over a long-time span vs quickly overnight.  Rember, precious metals allow for the preservation of wealth and freedom.

 

By following these best practices, you can minimize risks and maximize the potential benefits of investing in precious metals. As the monthly jobs reports cast light on the economic horizon, the allure of precious metals glimmers ever brighter. With these best practices in your arsenal, you’re well-prepared to embark on this magical journey of investing in precious metals. Embrace the enchantment, embrace the wisdom, and may your investments shine brilliantly, enriching your life with prosperity and stability.

 

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Gold Prices Steady as Markets Eye Key Economic Events and Fed’s Monetary Decision

 

Like the dog days of summer, the current tranquility in the commodities market could be a deceptive lull, as a flurry of impending pivotal economic data and events is poised to set the tone for their upcoming trajectories.

All eyes are currently trained on the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering, which kickstarted Tuesday morning and is set to wrap up Wednesday afternoon. Seen as the most important U.S. economic data event, a majority of market spectators foresee a 0.25% lift in the Fed funds rate, the central U.S. rate. Market participants globally will meticulously dissect the forthcoming FOMC statement and Fed Chair Powell’s media briefing for potential indications of the Fed’s monetary strategy in the forthcoming months.

Gold and silver prices successfully clung onto their small gains as the U.S. Federal Reserve stepped into the commencement of their two-day policy meeting. Recent metrics indicated a positive leap of $4.20 for August gold, positioning its worth at $1,966.5.  Its worth noting that while bulls have a near term advantage, we are still seeing the established support and resistance levels in like with the $1900-$2000 price window. Meanwhile, September silver charted an increase of $0.26, reaching $24.84.

U.S. stock indexes displayed modest upward movement at midday,  hinting at a probable continuation of the price upward trends in the subsequent weeks. Meanwhile, the favorable stock market conditions might be potentially redirecting interest from investors towards it, diverting them from traditionally steadfast safe-haven assets like gold and silver.

Balance could quickly shift as the week unfolds a series of economic data and corporate earnings announcements. Noteworthy are the release of various global PMI data, earnings results from tech behemoths like Microsoft and Alphabet, central bank verdicts from the likes of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, and the U.S. Q2 GDP report, among other things.

These vital economic pointers and corporate performance measures will undeniably influence investor sentiment, thereby shaping the commodities market. Especially, the anticipated interest rate increment by the Fed could wield a critical impact on gold prices.  Don’t be surprised if we witness a volatile next couple of days.

 

Beginner’s Pointers

Investing in precious metals can be a wise choice for many investors, but it’s important to understand the basics before diving in. Here are some steps that I would suggest to someone looking to learn more about investing in precious metals:

Understand the basics
Start by reading up on the basics of investing and precious metals. Learn about the different types of precious metals available for investment, such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, and the different ways to invest in them,

such as physical bullion, ETFs, mutual funds, and mining stocks.

Learn about the market
Research the precious metals market and the factors that affect their prices, such as supply and demand, geopolitical events, inflation, and interest rates. Follow financial news sources, such as Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal, to stay up to date on market trends and developments.

Set investment goals
Determine your investment goals and risk tolerance. Are you looking to invest for the short term or the long term? Do you want to invest in precious metals as a hedge against inflation or as a diversification strategy? Understanding your goals and risk tolerance will help you make informed investment decisions.

Choose a reputable dealer
If you decide to invest in physical precious metals, choose a reputable dealer. Look for dealers with a long history of providing quality products and good customer service.  While GoldClub Direct is newer, our team comprises of over 100 years of experience in the space.

Consider working with a financial advisor
Investing in precious metals can be complex, and it’s important to have a solid investment strategy in place. Consider working with a financial advisor who specializes in precious metals investing to help you make informed decisions and manage your portfolio.

Remember that investing in precious metals is not a one-size-fits-all solution, and it’s important to do your own research and make informed decisions based on your own goals and risk tolerance. By following these steps and learning as much as you can about the market, you can make informed investment decisions that work for you.

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Metals on the Move: Unveiling the Payroll Report’s Influence on Precious Metals Trading

 

As we pass the halfway point of 2023 and Americans return to work following the Independence Day holiday, the monthly payroll report(s), also known as the ADP and non-farm payrolls (NFP) report(s), are set to be released. The ADP employment report is typically released a few days before the NFP report. The ADP employment report is published by the payroll processing company Automatic Data Processing (ADP) in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. It is based on payroll data from ADP’s extensive client base, covering approximately 24 million employees in the private sector. On the other hand, the NFP report is released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is based on a survey of employers in both the private and public sectors, excluding agricultural employment. Acting as a key economic indicator released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP report provides information about the number of jobs added or lost in the non-farm sector of the U.S. economy, excluding agricultural and government employment.

June Payrolls Miss the Mark

Now that we’ve established what they are, on Thursday the ADP employment report revealed a surge in job numbers, doubling market expectations with 497,000 jobs added. The report had led to a significant impact on the U.S. dollar index, Treasury yields, and the precious metals market. This caused gold and silver prices to experience a dip in U.S. trading, driven by a stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market and the overall state of the economy.  This set the stage for an exciting Friday morning, anticipating that the NFP report would also exceed expectations.

Unfortunately, the report missed the mark, and as a result, the gold market is witnessing upward movement as momentum in the U.S. labor market appears to be weakening, with fewer NFP jobs created than expected. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June rose by 209,000, below the market consensus estimate of 240,000, while the unemployment rate dropped as anticipated. In response, the gold market experienced modest gains, with prices reaching initial resistance levels. The report also highlighted persistent wage inflation concerns, indicating an increase in average hourly earnings over the past year. However, the disappointing headline numbers and revisions to previous employment data present surprises for economists.

While the initial reaction in the gold market has been positive, precious metals investors must navigate the influence of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy stance. The Fed’s decisions regarding interest rates and monetary tightening continue to be influential factors that shape the precious metals landscape. And while yesterday’s ADP numbers indicated a more than likely interest rate increase for July, today’s updates reel that thought in and begs the fed to hold steady. As the metals market moves and evolves, the interplay between the monthly payroll reports, market dynamics, and other key factors remains a captivating narrative in the world of precious metals trading.

Chart 1. Gold Spot Price Movement, Interday 7/7/23

Factors

The precious metals market, (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium), is influenced by various factors, including economic indicators and market sentiment. The monthly payroll report is closely watched by investors and traders because it provides insights into the health of the U.S. labor market and the overall state of the economy. Here are a few reasons why the report can impact the precious metals market:

  1. Economic Outlook: The labor market is a significant component of the overall economy. Positive job growth and low unemployment levels indicate a strong economy, which can boost investor confidence and increase demand for riskier assets like stocks. In such cases, precious metals, which are often considered safe-haven assets, may experience decreased demand and price volatility.
  2. Inflation Expectations: The monthly payroll report also provides data on average hourly earnings, which can be an indicator of wage inflation. Higher wage growth may indicate increased consumer spending power and potential inflationary pressures. Precious metals are often seen as a hedge against inflation, so if the report suggests rising inflationary concerns, it can lead to increased demand and upward pressure on precious metal prices.
  3. Monetary Policy: The U.S. Federal Reserve closely monitors economic indicators like the monthly payroll report to make decisions about monetary policy, including interest rates. If the report shows strong job growth and low unemployment, it may imply a robust economy and potentially lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes. Higher interest rates can increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like precious metals, which can impact their demand and prices.
  4. Market Sentiment and Speculation: The release of important economic data, such as the monthly payroll report, often creates market volatility. Traders and speculators closely analyze the report, looking for signals to make trading decisions. Increased trading activity and speculation can result in short-term price fluctuations in the precious metals market.

While the monthly payroll report can have an impact on the precious metals market, it is just one of many factors that influence their prices. Other factors such as geopolitical events, global economic trends, central bank policies, and investor sentiment can also play significant roles in shaping precious metals market dynamics.

Why Precious Metals Should Be Part of Your Investment Portfolio

Precious metals have been used as currency and a store of value for thousands of years, with gold becoming the first known form of currency in ancient Egypt around 2,500 BCE. Over time, gold and silver were adopted as currency by various civilizations, and in the Middle Ages, European monarchs issued their own coins.

In the 20th century, governments began to abandon the gold standard, which tied the value of their currency to a fixed amount of gold, in favor of fiat currency, which is not backed by a physical commodity. However, gold and other precious metals continue to be used as a store of value and a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Today, precious metals are traded globally through a variety of financial instruments and investment vehicles.

There are several compelling reasons why someone might choose to invest in precious metals. Here are the most common:

1.       Hedge against inflation: Precious metals have historically been seen as a hedge against inflation, as they tend to maintain their value even when paper currencies lose purchasing power due to inflation.

2.       Safe haven in times of economic uncertainty: During times of economic uncertainty, investors may turn to precious metals as a safe haven investment. This is because precious metals are perceived to be a store of value that is not tied to any government or central bank and are therefore less vulnerable to economic volatility and political instability.

3.       Portfolio diversification: Adding precious metals to an investment portfolio can help to diversify it and reduce overall risk. Precious metals have a low correlation with other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds, which means that they can help to offset losses in those areas and provide a measure of stability.

4.       Potential for long-term growth: While precious metals can be volatile in the short term, they have the potential to appreciate over the long term due to increasing demand, limited supply, and their various industrial uses.

Overall, investing in precious metals can offer a range of benefits, from hedging against inflation and economic uncertainty to providing portfolio diversification and the potential for long-term growth. It is important to remember that investing always carries risks, and it is important to carefully consider your investment goals and conduct due diligence before making any investment decisions.

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The Intricate Dance: Consumer Confidence, Greed and Fear Index, Stock Market, and the Role of Gold and Silver

In the realm of finance, a delicate dance occurs between various factors that shape investor behavior and drive market performance. Among these factors, consumer confidence, the Greed and Fear Index, and the stock market play pivotal roles. Embedded within this intricate ecosystem, gold and silver have emerged as prominent alternative investments and safe-haven assets. This analysis unravels the intricate ties between consumer confidence, the Greed and Fear Index, the stock market, and the indispensable role of gold and silver.  As the World Gold Council pointed out earlier this month: Not only are central banks around the world increasing their gold purchases, but coin and bar investment has seen an increase of 5% year-on-year, contributing to overall demand reaching its highest level since 2010.

Consumer Confidence: Powering Market Momentum

Consumer confidence holds immense sway over economic growth, with its impact rippling across multiple sectors, including the stock market. During periods of elevated consumer confidence, investors become more willing to embrace the stock market. Buoyed by optimism, demand for stocks surges, propelling prices upward. Conversely, when consumer confidence wanes, caution sets in, leading to reduced investments and potential market downturns.

The Greed and Fear Index: Decoding Market Sentiment

The Greed and Fear Index, a crucial barometer of market sentiment, amalgamates various indicators to offer insights into investor attitudes. During periods of rampant greed, exemplified by a high index value, investors exhibit an appetite for risk and pour funds into the stock market, fueling price increases. Conversely, times of fear, marked by a low index value, see investors seeking safe havens and retreating to safer investments like precious metals.

Gold and Silver: Guardians of Wealth

In the face of economic uncertainty, gold and silver have stood the test of time as bastions of stability, offering a sanctuary for investors aiming to safeguard their wealth. These precious metals possess intrinsic value and have served as mediums of exchange for centuries.

Amidst fear and uncertainty, investors gravitate toward gold and silver, drawn by their stability and ability to hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations. Consequently, demand for these metals soars, propelling their prices and premiums upward. This phenomenon reaches its zenith during economic recessions, geopolitical tensions, or stock market corrections when the allure of gold and silver as safe-haven assets becomes most pronounced.

Stock Market and Precious Metals: A Tango

The relationship between the stock market and gold or silver follows an intricate dance characterized by an inverse correlation. During bullish market conditions and high investor confidence, the appeal of safe-haven assets diminishes, potentially leading to a decline in gold and silver prices.

However, in bearish market climates or during stock market downturns, investor fear and uncertainty surge, sparking a flight to safety. It is in these moments that gold and silver shine brightly as investors diversify their portfolios and shield their wealth. Consequently, the prices of these precious metals may ascend due to heightened demand.

Embracing the Intersection

The intricate interplay among consumer confidence, the Greed and Fear Index, the stock market, and the role of gold and silver reveals the complexity of the financial landscape. Consumer confidence acts as a catalyst, influencing investor behavior and driving stock market performance. Meanwhile, the Greed and Fear Index offers valuable insights into market sentiment.

In this dynamic environment, gold and silver assume pivotal roles as alternative investments and safe-haven assets. As investor sentiment fluctuates and economic uncertainty looms, these precious metals provide a reliable means of preserving wealth and weathering market storms.

This all plays into why gold has held above $1950 recently.  While technically in a minor downtrend, it’s possible markets hold between the $1,900 and $2,000 and $22-$25 point for gold and silver, respectively, as the vote to raise the debt limit is set for later in the week and the current recession rolls into the summer months.  Embrace the interplay, understand the dynamics, and navigate the ever-changing financial landscape with the wisdom of consumer confidence, the Greed and Fear Index, and the enduring allure of gold and silver as your guide.

All Updates and Market info are provided as a third party analysis and do not necessarily reflect the explicit views of GoldClub Direct LLC. and should not be construed as financial advice.

Market Update: Precious Metals React to Latest Employment Data

The latest employment data certainly did not disappoint, sending waves through the financial sector, with a staggering rise of 311,000 compared to the expected 225,000. However, this impressive figure has been accompanied by a surprise increase in U.S. unemployment rates from 3.4% to 3.6%. This raises questions about the true state of the labor market, and investors are right to be wary.

As we highlighted earlier this week, the precious metals markets have been flirting with the $1,815 level, waiting for the right catalyst to spur a reversal. Today, that catalyst arrived in the form of risk aversion and increased safe haven demand, with gold surging 1.62% to $1864.70 and silver climbing 2.53% to $20.64. Against the backdrop of uncertainty and volatility in the financial sector, precious metals are once again demonstrating their value as a reliable store of wealth and a hedge against market turbulence. This is further supported by the downward shift in 2Y Treasury yield, which is down 45bps, which is the biggest 2-day drop since September 2008.

With the situation at SVB Financial and the ongoing concerns about the labor market, it’s clear that investors need to remain vigilant and stay alert to the risks posed by a rapidly changing global economy. Technically, the gold futures bulls and bears are now back on a level playing field, with both sides vying for control over the near-term outlook.

Bulls aim to close April futures above the strong resistance at $1,875.00, while bears seek to push prices below the solid technical support at $1,800.00. Currently, the first resistance level is at $1,850.00, followed by the March high of $1,864.40 (gold peaked at 1868.60 today). On the downside, the initial support is at the overnight low of $1,830.00, then at $1,825.00.

In terms of silver, the market sentiment is still bearish in the short-term. Prices have been steadily declining over the past five weeks. The silver bulls are aiming to push the May futures prices above the robust technical resistance level of $21.50. On the other hand, the bears are looking to drive the prices below the strong support level of $19.00. Currently, the initial resistance level is noted at $20.505 and then at $21.00 (Silver peaked at 20.90 today). In contrast, the next support is observed at the overnight low of $19.945, followed by $19.50.

Against the backdrop of heightened market uncertainty and rising risk aversion, precious metals remain a critical safe haven asset for investors looking to protect their wealth and mitigate risk. With the technical suggesting that both gold and silver are poised for further gains, savvy investors will be keeping a close eye on these markets and positioning themselves accordingly. Stay alert, stay informed, and stay ahead of the curve in these turbulent times.

All Updates and Market info are provided as a third party analysis and do not necessarily reflect the explicit views of GoldClub Direct LLC. and should not be construed as financial advice.

The gold market takes a hit: Powell warns of higher interest rates

Busy week here at GoldClub Direct as we expect some price action! Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell issued a stern warning to US lawmakers today, stating that interest rates are likely to be higher than previously anticipated due to stronger-than-expected economic data.

In ‘hawkish’ prepared remarks for a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Powell cited a tight labor market, solid consumer spending, manufacturing production, and higher-than-expected inflation data as evidence that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously thought.

Powell warned that if these strong economic trends persist, the Fed could speed up its rate increases, which could cause further turbulence in the precious metals market. Powell noted the current situation is a combination of supply and demand issues, the war in Ukraine and further unknown resolution. He also acknowledged that getting inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% goal will be a a long and bumpy ride.

It is a good idea to proceed with caution in the current economic climate, as Powell’s warning suggests that the gold market could continue to be volatile in the weeks and months ahead. Markets will continue to monitor the situation as the testimony on U.S. monetary policy to Senate and House committees continues Tuesday and Wednesday.

These initial comments pressured gold prices down, with April Comex gold futures currently trading at $1,820.80, down 1.82% and Silver futures down 4.42% to $20.200 on the day. Solid support still exists for gold at $1,810.35 and the $1,800 price points and silver at 20.25 and $20.  Keep an eye out for any major reversals as the markets continues to digest the latest information.  A great buying opportunity may present itself to those looking to take advantage of the market dip in gold and silver!

While metals, crypto and stocks (S&P currently sitting at 3,997.08, down 1.27%) are all trending lower, predictably the dollar spot index and treasury yields rose higher.

Recap:
  • The US economy has continued to recover from the pandemic, with strong growth in GDP, employment, and consumer spending, but there are still challenges related to the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and other factors.
  • Inflation has been higher than expected in recent months, driven by supply chain bottlenecks, strong demand, and other factors, but the Fed expects inflation to moderate over time as these factors ease.
  • The Fed has maintained its accommodative monetary policy stance, with interest rates near zero and asset purchases ongoing, but it is preparing to adjust policy as necessary to achieve its goals of maximum employment and stable prices.
  • The Fed’s outlook for the economy and inflation is still uncertain and there will likely be continued softening in the labor market to achieve 2% inflation.

Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the the Labor Department which is scheduled to release the February U.S. employment situation report Friday, which will include the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls component. Experts predict that the report will reveal an increase of 225,000 jobs, following an impressive rise of 517,000 in the January report.

All Updates and Market info are provided as a third party analysis and do not necessarily reflect the explicit views of GoldClub Direct LLC. and should not be construed as financial advice.

Working For The Weak-end: Market Outlook

To wrap up the week in U.S. trading, both gold and silver prices weakened. Furthermore, outside market forces such as a higher U.S. dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields are also bearish for the metals market bulls. April gold closed at $1,817.10, down by $9.7, while March silver is down $.496 at $20.810.

The U.S. data point of the day on Friday was the personal income and outlays report for January, including its PCE price index component. As the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the annual core PCE price index, accelerated in January to 4.7%, above expectations of 4.4%. This macroeconomic outlook has led to concerns about gold’s vulnerability in the short term, with indications of a potential further drop if it falls below $1,800 per ounce. As noted yesterday, there is strong resistance indications at $1,780. However, geopolitical tensions are supporting gold’s search for a bottom in this downtrend, as the threat of nuclear war looms large.

Global stock markets experienced mixed results overnight, with U.S. stock indexes opening and closing lower after a hot inflation report. This week, the U.S. stock indexes have hit multi-week lows, signaling a low risk appetite, as the market finally understands that the U.S. will maintain tighter monetary policies to curb inflation. This scenario is bearish for the metals market from a global demand perspective.

Despite the volatility in the gold market, some experts predict that the precious metal’s tendency for quick selloffs and recoveries during times of panic will continue. Analysts will closely monitor macro data scheduled for next week, including the ISM manufacturing and service sector reports for February, for any signs of weakness after a more-or-less strong start to the year.

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All Updates and Market info are provided as a third party analysis and do not necessarily reflect the explicit views of GoldClub Direct LLC. and should not be construed as financial advice.